As the 2024 hurricane season unfolds, Jamaicans are being advised to brace for warmer days and nights from September to November, despite an anticipated increase in rainfall frequency. The Meteorological Service of Jamaica’s Preliminary Rainfall and Drought Report, published in May, forecasts above-normal temperatures for the western and central regions of the island during this period.
According to the report, there is a 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures, a 35 percent chance of normal temperatures, and a 25 percent chance of below-normal temperatures across the island for the upcoming months. This means that while some areas may experience occasional rainfall, the overall climate is expected to be hotter than usual.
The report also brings positive news regarding drought conditions across Jamaica. In the earlier months of 2024, many parts of the island were grappling with drought. During the February/March period, 51 percent of Jamaica was under normal drought conditions, with severe drought reported in Portland and St. Mary. However, conditions improved by March/April, with 70 percent of the island experiencing no drought. At that time, severe drought persisted in St. Catherine, St. Thomas, and St. Mary, while Clarendon and Kingston and St. Andrew faced normal drought conditions.
By the April/May 2024 period, further improvements were noted, with 79 percent of the island no longer experiencing drought conditions. Despite this progress, Kingston and St. Andrew continued to face severe drought, and normal drought conditions remained in Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, St. Catherine, and St. Mary.
As the island moves into the peak of the hurricane season, the mixed forecast underscores the need for continued vigilance and preparedness. While the improved drought situation is a relief, the potential for hotter-than-usual temperatures could bring its own set of challenges. Jamaicans are encouraged to stay informed and take necessary precautions as the season progresses.
For more detailed information and tips on how to prepare for the 2024 hurricane season, the Jamaica Observer Online, in collaboration with several partners, has produced a comprehensive Hurricane Season Guide, available now.
